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With an 11-2-1 record, this group was one of many Vikings teams that should have won the big game. Carolina Panthers +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total), The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and theyre going to be underdogs frequently again this year. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. John Elway finally won his ring in a well-played game that featured one of the best performances by a running back in Super Bowl history. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. A crummy game turned into an instant classic thanks to a brilliant game-winning drive authored by Joe Montana. It's what helps people grow. Stroud showed love to Justin Fields when explaining why he doesn't the Bears to draft him: 'That's his team', The Red Sox found a loophole in the MLB shift ban and it stinks for Joey Gallo, Survivor 44: Meet the castaways who will compete for $1 million in Fiji, Mets fans hilariously embraced basketball tactics to confuse players on the pitch clock, The Warriors left Russell Westbrook ridiculously wide open and it worked to perfection, Watch: Man tries feeding bison near Yellowstone; it doesnt go well, 2023 NFL Combine Winners Day 1: Blazing-fast DTs give the Bears plenty to consider, Ranking all 32 NFL teams' helmet logos, from worst to best, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. However, New York went just 10-6 in the regular season. This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers hasnt been back since 2011., The Chiefs have gone to two straight. Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. At 133, this defense was nasty by forcing 31 turnovers. It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year This Super Bowl gave us a bunch of memorable performances. Buffalo is in position to make another deep playoff run this season. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. Kansas City's middling defense (No. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy.. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. The best chance they had and they were wide right. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. 9. Peyton Manning needed the Saints and Tracy Porter to not come marching in. 19. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. WebAbout Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. How much this defense will improve under first-year head coach Brandon Staley will be an indicator whether the Chargers are playoff-caliber. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. 2007 Giants, 2007 Patriots, 2006 Colts, or the 2009 Saints, with a 25th overall defense, could say they were all the worst defensive teams to win a Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. If Baker Mayfield improves from last season's campaign, the Browns will contend for a Super Bowl in 2021. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Those numbers are buoyed by two factors: FPI projects them to have the best defense in the league. Peyton Manning dragged him and the rest of the team there. Indianapolis Colts +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October.. But even with all that, its not even the best Super Bowl of the last two years. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. Complete team-by-team FPI projections We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). The agony of defeat. Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. 25. Philadelphia Eagles +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! A very good defense led by Andre Tippett and Steve Nelson. If Murray can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for this team. The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. Who do you think was the best team to not win a Super Bowl. Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. 14. So their overall grade suffered. The Vikings uncharacteristically had a poor defense in 2020, ranking 29th in points allowed after finishing as a top 10 unit the previous five seasons. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. For starters, the NFC has nine road games this season, so a team from that conference was always likely to occupy the top spot. The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense., If they get by the Rams in Week 3, theyll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and youll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later., 2. It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). The Jaguars are still going to be exciting to watch in 2021 as Urban Meyer is the best college coach to enter the NFL in years, having arguably the most talented quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in Trevor Lawrence. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. This team just wasn't ready yet. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, with a 15% chance, followed by the Jets (10%), Jaguars (8%) and Eagles (7%). FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba Will this be the first time for everything?. Trent Dilfer. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? If Watson doesn't play in 2021, the Texans will be competing for the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. They went 3-0.. This Super Bowl had it all: An underdog story (Nick Foles), a memorable play (Philly Special), a controversial coaching decision (Belichick benching Malcolm Butler), a ton of points (a record 74 points combined!) For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. 17. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. 5. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. According to statistics, the 2011 New York Giants. Which is funny considering the team they beat, the 2011 Patriots, would have also been the worst FIFA World Cup - Best Goals from Every Angle, Draw for the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023, C.J. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. Unless Tua Tagovailoa makes a Josh Allen-type leap and the offensive line improves, theres just no shot at the Super Bowl. And it isn't particularly bullish on their prospects. 11 in the league, per FPI) isn't a problem with that kind of strength on the other side of the ball. Forget about Super Bowl history, this was one of the best games in the history of American sports. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? Herbert has immensely changed the fortunes of a franchise that mired in mediocrity during Philip Rivers' final years. They're returning the 2020 MVP and had the league's most efficient offense last year -- yes, even better than Kansas City's. You can make a case that every team that endured the best shots from every one of their opponents throughout the season, found a way to win enough What Allen accomplished in 2020 was MVP-caliber, even if he didn't take home the league's highest individual honor. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. A 15-1 team, losing to the Atlanta Falcons by a single touchdown, the 2015 Carolina Panthers were a dominant offensive force with an underrated defense. The Vikings have made the playoffs every odd-year season since coach Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, which bodes well for them in 2021. The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. Baltimore Ravens +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total), The best team in the rugged AFC North, but the least talked about. It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. 28. But the rest of the roster is important, too. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. It was easily the sloppiest Super Bowl of all-time. Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. From Devin Hester to an elite defense led by Brian Urlacher, this team earned their spot on the biggest stage. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. 18. Don't sleep on the rest of the league, of course. Bradshaw would go on to complete just 67 passes for 785 yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in his limited action. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. Bart Starr won MVP with only 13 completions. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL NFC West, AFC North the uphill climb is real. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. The AFC West belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, but second place is there for the taking. Both of those teams went on to lose in the Super Bowl. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. Ryan Tannehill has been a top five quarterback over the last two seasons and it hasn't been talked about enough. Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. This would have been yet another classic Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl if Neil ODonnell didnt throw the game away. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings, Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: 1-32 ranking, Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on how much better (or worse) they got this offseason, NFL Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 32 teams for the next three seasons, Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. Adding Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods, Sheldon Richardsonand Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency improves this unit -- which also gets Danielle Hunter back from a neck injury. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: nfl | pageType: stories | The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. A great passing defense helped elevate this Vikings team to a 122 record. Seattle Seahawks +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Will we see the first-half Seahawks (6-1, 34 points per game! Slightly. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. Super Bowl LIV (Source: KC Kingdom) Chiefs won the Super Bowl with a 31-20 score, their first since Super Bowl IV and after the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. Baltimore has a unique spot on this list because its inclusion is not based on mediocre talent (it had players like Bubba Smith and Johnny Unitas) or that it struggled to win games (the Colts went 11-2-1). A year before perfection. The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. The game was a blowout but did give us one of the most iconic moments in Super Bowl history: Don Beebe chasing down a prematurely celebrating Leon Lett. In a season without a normal offseason due to the pandemic, the 142 defending champs looked like easy Super Bowl favorites. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. Ill assume you didnt watch the Their defense only gave up 9.5 points per game in a 14-game season. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. This is how good the NFC West is: There's a 37% chance that three of the four teams reach the playoffs, and there's even a 3% chance that all four get in. New Orleans Saints +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), The most puzzling number on the board, as Im much lower on the Saints than this..